Compare the great power theorys origins from Kissinger and look at the 16th-19th centuries
Thesis
1. The Balance of Power Theory Is Not Useful in Terms of Explaining the US Decision to Support Ukraine, the revolution in 2014, and sanctioning Russia in 2014 because it fails to take into context the velocity and condition of powers as their relative power position changes. Liberal argument fails because it fails to take that Neo realist argument into account.2.3. Transition to Core Argument, which is that the Offensive Realist Argument Explains the US Decision Better
2. The United States recent hegemony meant it failed to consider risks to its position adequately
1. The US saw Ukrainian activists NATO aspirations as proof of its liberal position being correct
1. Powers like things that reassure themselves, it is easier to look for these than to look for new risks
2. The US Position was so dangerous because Russia is a recently declined power and weary of threat and naturally saw NATOs expansion to its borders as a major threat (defensive realist threat)
1. NATO structure doesnt matter (take down constructivist argument)3. Liberal Order Fails to Provide Real Security Guarantees in a Realist World
1. Ukraine was left out to dry after 2014 even as sanctions and tensions increased
1. No real Western support in terms of arms, but continued NATO talk meant Russia saw the threat as real (the west thought no arms support would be enough to calm Russia down)
2.
2. even NATO article5 is untested
4. Explain velocity argument1. The rate at which powers rise and fall today is faster than ever before
1. Compare the great power theorys origins from Kissinger and look at the 16th-19th centuries
2. The US completely missed the speed of Chinas riseacademic references for examples
3. Additional examples of US hubris, put them in the context of velocity1. US failure to consider China, errors in the Middle East
